Glossary
Football stats glossary
The terms you'll see in xG PRO, each explained in one sentence and with a match example.
- xG (expected goals)xG, or expected goals, is how many goals a team tends to score in a match, on average.
- Poisson distributionThe Poisson distribution gives the probability of something happening 0, 1, 2, 3… times when you know the average.
- Scoreline matrixA scoreline matrix is the table with the probability of every result of a match, from 0-0 to 5-5.
- Fair oddsFair odds are the odds that match the exact probability of an outcome, with no bookmaker margin: fair odds = 1 ÷ probability.
- Implied probabilityImplied probability is the chance built into a set of odds: 1 ÷ odds.
- Expected value (EV) and value betsExpected value, or EV, is the average return of a bet repeated many times: EV = probability × odds − 1.
- Over and under goalsOver 2.5 goals wins when the match ends with 3 or more goals; under 2.5, with 2 or fewer.
- Both teams to score (BTTS)Both teams to score, or BTTS, wins when each team scores at least one goal.
- Asian handicapAsian handicap is a market that gives one team a goal head start or deficit before kick-off, with no draw option.
- Correct scoreCorrect score means calling the exact final result, for example 2-1.
- Model calibrationA model is calibrated when the probabilities it gives match how often things actually happen: of the matches where it says 60%, about 60% come true.
- Brier score and log lossThe Brier score is the mean squared error of probability forecasts: 0 is perfect, and giving 1/3 to each outcome of the 1X2 scores 0.667.
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