Glossary
What is implied probability?
Implied probability is the chance built into a set of odds: 1 ÷ odds. Odds of 2.50 imply a 40% chance. Added up, the implied probabilities of a bookmaker's market exceed 100%, and the excess is the margin.
Comparing the bookmaker's implied probability with the model's is the most direct way to see where the two disagree.
Margin example: odds of 1.90 and 1.90 on a two-way market imply 52.6% + 52.6% = 105.2%. The margin is 5.2%.
See also
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