What are fair odds?

Fair odds are the odds that match the exact probability of an outcome, with no bookmaker margin: fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. An event with a 50% chance has fair odds of 2.00.

Bookmakers build in a margin: the implied probabilities of their odds add up to more than 100%. Fair odds strip that margin out and show the price the model considers correct.

When the bookmaker's odds sit above the fair odds, the price is in the bettor's favor, according to the model. That's what xG PRO highlights with the gold border.

Example. Home win at a 54.2% chance: fair odds of 1.85. If the bookmaker pays 2.10, it's paying above fair value.

See also

• Implied probability
• Expected value (EV) and value bets
• Scoreline matrix
• How xG PRO calculates every match