What should these odds pay?
xG PRO calculates the probability of every scoreline for more than a thousand teams across 55 leagues and turns it into fair odds for any market. When the market pays more than that, the card lights up gold. Pre-match and live.
The bookmaker's screen shows exactly one price: theirs.
The odds come with no yardstick
It's not that you don't know football. The bookmaker shows you a number and that's it: without the probability next to it, there's no way to tell if the price is above or below fair.
Live betting doesn't wait
One goal moves every price in seconds. Redoing the math in your head while the clock runs, with other matches going at the same time, is asking for mistakes.
The information is all over the place
Stats on one site, odds on another, live scores on a third. By the time you put it together, the moment is gone.
How xG PRO prices every match
From raw data to the fair price of any market, in five steps.
Database
Years of matches from 55 leagues: goals scored and conceded, home and away, by half and by stretch of minutes. Updated every matchday.
Database · 55 leagues · sample
- England · Premier LeagueFT goals 1.58 × 1.21
- Brazil · Série AHT goals 0.61 × 0.48
- Spain · La Liga0–15 min 9.4%
- Italy · Serie Ahome 1.49 · away 1.12
- Germany · BundesligaFT goals 1.71 × 1.34
- Argentina · Superliga75–90 min 18.2%
- Portugal · Primeira LigaHT goals 0.66 × 0.52
- France · Ligue 1home 1.52 · away 1.09
- England · Premier LeagueFT goals 1.58 × 1.21
- Brazil · Série AHT goals 0.61 × 0.48
- Spain · La Liga0–15 min 9.4%
- Italy · Serie Ahome 1.49 · away 1.12
- Germany · BundesligaFT goals 1.71 × 1.34
- Argentina · Superliga75–90 min 18.2%
- Portugal · Primeira LigaHT goals 0.66 × 0.52
- France · Ligue 1home 1.52 · away 1.09
Algorithm and matchup
One team's attack is matched against the other's defense and the league average. Playing home or away changes the math.
Algorithm · matchup
Attack homeLeague averageDefense awayeach side's strength in this matchAttack awayDefense homeThe match xG
The matchup produces the xG: how many goals each side is expected to score in this match.
Match xG · sample
Home
0.00expected goals
Away
0.00expected goals
Scoreline matrix
From the xG, the engine calculates the probability of every scoreline, from 0-0 to 5-5.
Scoreline matrix · probability of each result
01234508.2%13.3%10.8%5.8%2.4%0.8%17.2%11.7%9.5%5.1%2.1%0.7%23.2%5.1%4.2%2.3%0.9%0.3%30.9%1.5%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%40.2%0.3%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%50.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Home →
Peak1 × 013.3% @7.52Any market
Every market is a sum of scorelines from the matrix. The probability becomes fair odds, and you compare them with the bookmaker's odds.
Market = sum of the highlighted cells
012345081311621171295212354213121145Home →
@ = fair odds (1 ÷ probability), with no bookmaker margin. Tap a market to see which cells it adds up.
Database · 55 leagues · sample
- England · Premier LeagueFT goals 1.58 × 1.21
- Brazil · Série AHT goals 0.61 × 0.48
- Spain · La Liga0–15 min 9.4%
- Italy · Serie Ahome 1.49 · away 1.12
- Germany · BundesligaFT goals 1.71 × 1.34
- Argentina · Superliga75–90 min 18.2%
- Portugal · Primeira LigaHT goals 0.66 × 0.52
- France · Ligue 1home 1.52 · away 1.09
- England · Premier LeagueFT goals 1.58 × 1.21
- Brazil · Série AHT goals 0.61 × 0.48
- Spain · La Liga0–15 min 9.4%
- Italy · Serie Ahome 1.49 · away 1.12
- Germany · BundesligaFT goals 1.71 × 1.34
- Argentina · Superliga75–90 min 18.2%
- Portugal · Primeira LigaHT goals 0.66 × 0.52
- France · Ligue 1home 1.52 · away 1.09
In practice
Step 5, on a real match today.
Palmeiras × Flamengo
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker odds | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Fair odds | 1.82 | 3.90 | 4.90 |
Bookmaker odds above the fair odds mean the bookmaker is paying more than the risk our engine calculated; on favorites (odds below 3), the card gets a gold border.
Goal averages for every team, league by league: stats by league and goal rankings. How the math works: methodology.
Pre-match
Before kickoff, you already know what the match is worth.
Open any match and see, side by side, the probability of a home win, draw and away win, the fair price of each and the price the bookmaker is paying. When the bookmaker pays more than fair, the card lights up gold. The math is done. You just read it.
Under the hood · fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability. The gold border appears when the real 1X2 odds beat the fair odds, below 3.0.
Home, draw and away — model probability, fair odds and real odds, on the same card
Goal markets — over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score, as percentages
AI analysis — a write-up for every match: recent form, absences, and where the model and the market disagree
Scenarios
36 possible scorelines. Each with its own probability.
The matrix shows the probability of every result, from 0-0 to 5-5. Tap a cell to see the fair price of that scoreline. Right below are total goals, goals per team, Asian handicap and the timeline, with the chance of a goal in each stretch of minutes. You find out not just whether a goal is coming, but when.
Under the hood · 8 time windows, from 0-10' to 75-90', adding up to the match xG. The handicap accounts for full win, half win, push and loss.
Scoreline matrix — a heat map with the most likely scoreline highlighted
Timeline — which stretch of minutes each team tends to score in
Asian handicap — 15 lines per side, each with its fair price
Picks and combos
The app points to where the numbers are strongest. The call is still yours.
Every match gets up to four reads: the main one (probability between 55% and 90%), the value one (when the bookmaker's price beats fair by 5% or more), the in-game situation and a market combo. Build your own combo, mix first half and full time, and see its real probability.
Under the hood · combos use the joint probability of goals in each half (1,296 scenarios), not the product of each market's probability.
Four reads per match — main, value, situation and combo
Most likely scorelines — the top 5, each with its probability
Pre-match and live — the same screen switches to the current minute once the ball is rolling
Filters
114 criteria to find the right match among dozens, in seconds.
Filter the day by xG, goal probability, in-game situations, handicap or timeline. Start from one of 9 ready-made recipes (high-scoring match, home favorite, tight match), save up to 50 of your own filters, or just describe what you're looking for and let the AI build the filter.
Sort by value or confidence — matches with the biggest price gap rise to the top
Ready-made recipes — 9 one-tap filters, so you can start without building anything
AI that builds the filter — you type in plain English and the app turns it into criteria
History
Form, head-to-head and standings, without switching tabs.
Each team's latest matches, with the halftime and full-time score, plus home/away and result filters. Next to it, the league table. Everything you'd open on three different sites, in one place.
Form summary — wins, draws, losses, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in recent matches
Search by opponent — find the head-to-head in one tap
Favorites and alerts
Your team plays, your phone tells you. Even with the app closed.
Follow teams and matches and get alerts 15 minutes before kickoff, at kickoff, for every goal, for red cards, at halftime and at full time. Our server is the one watching the match, so the alert arrives with the app closed and the screen off.
Per team — you choose which alerts you want for each one
Lists and notes — organize matches your way and jot down what you saw
On your phone and your computer. However you follow football.
Add it to your home screen like an app, no app store needed. It works in English, Spanish and Portuguese, with kickoff times in your time zone. And if you use Claude or ChatGPT, connect them to xG PRO and ask about today's matches in plain language.
Live Radar
You step away from the match. The Radar keeps watching.
12 rules watch every live match. The numbers rerun every 3 minutes of play and instantly after every goal and red card. When a situation shows up, the alert hits your phone with the match, the minute, the market and the reason. And the card closes itself once the match gives its answer.
Misleading 0-0
0-0 between the 25th and 59th minute, in a match where the model expected 2.5 goals or more.
Favorite conceded first
The underdog opened the scoring and the favorite still has at least a 25% chance of scoring before full time.
Underdog down to ten
Between the 30th and 80th minute, the favorite is drawing or losing against a team that had a player sent off.
Hot zone in a draw
A drawn match enters a stretch of minutes with a 33% or higher chance of a goal.
Both teams to score, pending
Only one team has scored, and the other is entering the stretch of minutes when it scores the most.
Open finish
From the 65th to the 88th minute, a one-goal margin and at least a 25% chance of a goal in the current or next stretch.
Plus: Home side pressing, Away side pressing, Clear favorite drawing, Favorite drawing at halftime, Leader with a man advantage.
How often each rule hits, including the ones that do badly: public Radar calibration.
Red card on the wrong side? The rule switches off. Goal ruled out by VAR? The alert is marked “no merit” instead of counting as a hit or a miss.
Built by HT FT Stats
xG PRO is built by HT FT Stats, a football stats brand since 2022 with 36K followers on Instagram.
36K
HT FT Stats followers on Instagram
since 2022
HT FT Stats in the football stats business
From the people who tested it
An innovative app, especially the side-by-side of fair odds and real odds.
xG PRO beta tester It's fairer. It doesn't lean toward the bookmaker.
xG PRO beta tester For casual bettors like us, with little time to do research, it helps a lot.
xG PRO beta tester Easy to use and the reads are easy to follow. I'd call it fantastic.
xG PRO beta tester Every update makes it more complete. Perfect if you like convenience and solid analysis.
xG PRO beta tester It pulls together information that's scattered across other tools.
xG PRO beta tester Keep chasing excellence. You're on the right track to be among the best.
xG PRO beta tester
Feedback from xG PRO testers, translated from Portuguese. Individual experience; results not guaranteed.
The whole app for US$0.22 a day.
Both plans unlock everything, from pre-match to the Radar. The only difference is how you pay: on the quarterly plan, 3 months cost US$20. On the monthly plan, the same 3 months add up to US$30.
- Cancel anytime from your account. Questions? Message us on WhatsApp.
Monthly Plan
US$10/mo
US$10 every 30 days
- Pre-match for every league, with fair odds and real odds
- Scoreline matrix, timeline and handicap
- Picks and combos with the real probability
- Live Radar with 12 rules and phone alerts
- 114 filter criteria, recipes and AI that builds the filter
- AI analysis on every match
- Connects to Claude and ChatGPT
Renews automatically until you cancel.
Quarterly Plan
US$6.67/mo
US$20 every 90 days
Save US$10 every 3 months
- Pre-match for every league, with fair odds and real odds
- Scoreline matrix, timeline and handicap
- Picks and combos with the real probability
- Live Radar with 12 rules and phone alerts
- 114 filter criteria, recipes and AI that builds the filter
- AI analysis on every match
- Connects to Claude and ChatGPT
Renews automatically until you cancel.
For adults 18+ only. xG PRO is not a bookmaker and does not guarantee results. Play responsibly.
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Frequently asked questions
Is it a sure bet?
No. No bet is a sure thing, and you should be wary of anyone who says otherwise. xG PRO is an analysis tool: it shows the probability calculated by the engine, the fair odds and where the bookmaker is paying more than that. The decision and the risk are still yours. xG PRO is not a bookmaker and does not guarantee results.
Is it for beginners?
Yes. You don't need to know statistics: the AI writes up the match read in plain English and the Bet Builder tells you in one sentence what needs to happen. But it's a tool for people who already bet: if you don't bet yet, xG PRO is not a reason to start.
How do I get access?
Subscribe with your email, then sign in to the app with that same email to create your password. Access unlocks automatically, usually within 1 minute.
How do I cancel?
Cancel anytime from your account or through our WhatsApp. Once you cancel, you won't be charged again, and you keep access until the end of the period you've already paid for.
Do I need to install anything?
No app store download needed. xG PRO opens in your phone or computer browser, and you can add it to your home screen like an app. On iPhone, notifications only arrive after you add the app to your home screen.
Which leagues are covered?
Dozens of competitions: Brasileirão, Copa do Brasil, Europe's big five leagues, the Champions League, Libertadores, Sudamericana and smaller leagues, like those in Iceland, South Korea and Australia. Each league has its own averages, which calibrate the calculation.
Who is it for?
For adults 18+ who follow football and want to decide with numbers, not ready-made tips. If you bet, play responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose.
The bookmaker does its math. Now do yours.
xG PRO doesn't hand you ready-made tips or promise results. It puts fair odds next to the bookmaker's odds, pre-match and live, and the call is yours. From US$10 a month, cancel anytime.