What is a scoreline matrix?

A scoreline matrix is the table with the probability of every result of a match, from 0-0 to 5-5. Each cell is the home team's goal probability multiplied by the away team's.

Once the matrix is built, any market is a sum of cells: a home win adds up the scorelines where the home side scores more; the draw adds up the diagonal; over 2.5 goals adds up the scorelines with 3 or more goals.

In the app, the matrix lives in the Scenarios tab, with the most likely scoreline highlighted and the fair odds of each scoreline when you tap its cell.

Example. In the example match, the most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13.3%); 1-1 sits at 11.7% and 0-0 at 8.2%.

See also

• Poisson distribution
• Fair odds
• Correct score
• How xG PRO calculates every match