Glossary
What is expected value (EV), and what is a value bet?
Expected value, or EV, is the average return of a bet repeated many times: EV = probability × odds − 1. If the result is above zero, the odds pay more than the risk, and it's called a value bet.
Positive EV doesn't guarantee winning the bet: it guarantees, if the probability is right, winning on average across many similar bets. That's why model calibration matters as much as EV.
In the app, the value signal shows up when the bookmaker's odds beat the fair odds by 5% or more.
Example. A 54.2% chance at odds of 2.10: EV = 0.138, or 13.8% per unit, on average.
See also
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