What is xG (expected goals)?

xG, or expected goals, is how many goals a team tends to score in a match, on average. An xG of 1.6 doesn't promise 1 or 2 goals: it says that across many identical matches, the average would be 1.6.

The term has two uses. On TV broadcasts, xG measures the quality of each shot: a shot from inside the six-yard box is worth more than one from outside the area. At xG PRO, xG is the expected goals of the matchup before kick-off, calculated from each team's home and away averages of goals scored and conceded, plus the league average.

That number feeds the scoreline matrix and, from it, the probability of any market.

Example. Home side at 1.62 xG and away side at 0.88: the match averages 2.5 expected goals.

See also

• Poisson distribution
• Scoreline matrix
• Fair odds
• How xG PRO calculates every match